France vs. Iraq - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

France and Iraq meet in a 2026 FIFA World Cup group match in Philadelphia, with kick-off listed for 21:00 UTC and settlement tied only to the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. For a score-specific market, the 3% crowd-implied probability on a **YES** outcome suggests the current book is pricing a very narrow slice of the outcome space, not a generic France win, so programmatic traders usually model this as a catalogue of exact-score states rather than a direction bet.[2][3]

The historical frame is straightforward: this is the first competitive meeting between the sides, so there is no direct head-to-head scoreline history to anchor the distribution. Instead, traders will lean on comparable mismatch profiles: France are priced as heavy favourites on the match line, while the total is set around 3.5 goals, which is consistent with a game that can still land in a few low-probability exact scores such as 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, or an “any other score” bucket if the listed outcomes do not match.[1][2][5]

For a power-user, the practical catalysts are lineup confirmation, injury or suspension news, late schedule changes, and any sign of rotation before kick-off. The market only resolves on regulation time, so extra time and penalties are irrelevant, and if the match is delayed or moved, the position can remain open until completion; that makes calendar and fixture-status monitoring the key automated inputs. FIFA’s match-centre listing and team media appearances are the main pre-match signals to watch, with any late update likely to move exact-score pricing more than the headline match-winner line.[3][6][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track France vs. Iraq - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.