US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world trigger is a written U.S.-Iran diplomatic instrument tied to the June announcement, with the market only paying **Yes** if a qualifying deal is mutually signed or formally adopted by 31 August 2026. In practical terms, traders using scripts, bots, or conditional orders should treat this as a document-event market rather than a broad “peace” headline: the key test is whether the parties produce the required instrument in the required form, not whether talks continue or rhetoric improves.[1][2]

The probability can be read against a history of Iran nuclear negotiations where interim frameworks often appear, then slip on verification, sanctions, and sequencing. Reuters reported that the June draft included oil-sanctions waivers, nuclear limits, and a 60-day window for a final accord, while CSIS noted the memorandum was slated for signature in Geneva and that the next phase would focus on uranium stockpiles and enrichment.[2][3] That structure matters for pricing: a low current implied probability suggests the market is discounting the risk that a framework stalls before the settlement cutoff, especially if wording, signatures, or formal adoption remain unresolved.

For a power-user, the near-term catalysts are the next round of talks, any announced signing venue or date, and any public confirmation that inspectors, sanctions relief, or Strait of Hormuz arrangements are being sequenced into a binding text. AP said the arrangement begins a 60-day negotiating period, and Reuters reported no new sanctions would be imposed until a final agreement is reached.[1][3] That means monitoring official communiqués, diplomatic calendars, and news alerts for changes in the draft language is more useful than watching general market sentiment; if a signing is postponed, the market likely reprices quickly, but if a signed instrument appears, the probability should move sharply.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.