Highest temperature in NYC on June 21?

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Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 21 June 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit and resolved via Wunderground data. Historical climate normals for this date show a maximum of 83°F, with an extreme record of 98°F set in 2012 [1]. Current 2026 forecasts for June indicate daily highs between 75°F and 88°F, suggesting the 0% YES probability for a temperature exceeding the upper range is statistically grounded [3]. The crowd-implied zero reflects that recent years have not breached the 90°F threshold on this specific date, aligning with the 1991–2020 climate average period [1].

Traders approaching this programmatically should monitor the National Weather Service daily climatological reports issued for LGA, which provide the definitive resolution data [6]. A key catalyst is the onset of the Atlantic heat season, typically peaking later in June, with the highest daily temperature in New York historically occurring on 26 June at 83.6°F [7]. While no specific announcement is pending, the dependency on Wunderground’s hourly aggregation means any data latency or sensor calibration shifts could alter the final figure. Recent weather history from 19 June shows a high of 80°F, reinforcing the current trend of moderate temperatures [5]. The all-time record of 107°F remains an outlier from July 1966, far outside the current June probability window [10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.