Highest temperature in Paris on June 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Paris’s highest temperature on 22 June will be set by the maximum at Paris-Le Bourget Airport, which is the settlement source, so programmatic tracking should key off the daily high in Celsius from that station rather than citywide averages. With the crowd still at 0% YES, the market is pricing in an outcome outside the current consensus, which usually signals either stale liquidity or a view that the relevant threshold is still improbable despite the broader heat backdrop.

That reading sits against an unusually hot June pattern in France. Polymarket’s related 21 June market was already fully priced to 37°C, while the 22 June contract showed the market split almost entirely between 37°C and 38°C, and Polymarket’s own guidance cited Météo-France and ECMWF ensemble runs around 38–39°C.[1][2] Reuters also reported the French weather agency warning of record-high temperatures on Monday, with 35–38°C already observed and 40°C peaks seen on Friday, which is consistent with a heatwave regime rather than a normal late-June distribution.[6]

For traders using bots, conditional orders, or copy-trading, the key catalysts are the daytime forecast updates, any Météo-France escalation or downgrade, and the realised peak near the settlement cut-off. The market resolves on the highest temperature recorded on 22 June, so late-morning heating, cloud cover, wind shift, or a sea-breeze suppression at Le Bourget can matter more than the earlier overnight forecast. The practical workflow is to monitor the station-specific history page directly, compare it with ensemble guidance, and adjust exposure only when the intraday maximum range visibly moves.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.