Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 21?

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Market context

Shanghai Pudong International Airport is set for a warm June day, and the market will settle on the *single highest reading* logged at the station before the noon UTC cutoff, not the daily average. At 07:00 UTC, the local forecast points to sunshine after early cloud, with highs around 65°F, which is roughly 18°C, and breezy conditions[1]. That leaves the main task for a programme or bot to translate the station history page into Celsius, watch the intraday maximum, and map the final number to the market’s temperature band on Wunderground[1].

The current 0% YES price is consistent with a setup where the realised high must clear a specific threshold band, not merely be “hot”. June at Shanghai Pudong is climatologically a warm period: WeatherSpark places the average June daily high at the airport in the upper 70s to low 80s Fahrenheit, with hot season conditions extending from mid-June into September[3][7]. Airport climate references also note that summer highs can regularly exceed 30°C in strong sunshine[4]. For a trader using automated alerts or copy-trading, the key comparison is whether the live forecast and any late-morning warming path still leave the station likely to finish inside the relevant bucket, rather than just above seasonal norms.

The main catalysts are local weather evolution and any updated forecast guidance through the settlement window. Wunderground’s daily history for ZSPD is the resolution source, so the only number that matters is the maximum temperature recorded at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station during the day[1]. If skies clear faster than expected, or if winds ease and boundary-layer heating strengthens, the realised peak can move materially versus the early-morning forecast; if cloud persists or a sea-breeze type moderation holds, the upside can stay capped[1]. The practical workflow is to poll the station page near the local afternoon maximum, compare the Celsius value against the contract ladder, and automate order changes only when the observed high is close to a settlement boundary.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket App UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.