Highest temperature in Wellington on June 21?

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Market context

The real-world event centres on the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on 21 June 2026, a date historically marked by cool, wet conditions. Current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any temperature above the lowest range reflects the typical June climate, where average daily highs hover between 13°C and 14°C, with overcast skies dominating 42% of the month. Recent data shows Wellington already beat its record June maximum, reaching over 19°C, an anomaly that underscores how unusual warmth would be required to shift the probability from zero. For a power-user evaluating this market programmatically, the baseline is clear: historical norms heavily favour the lower temperature bracket, making any deviation a high-impact outlier event.

Traders should monitor MetService NZ announcements for sudden shifts in wind patterns or cloud cover, as these are primary catalysts for temperature spikes in Wellington. The recent record-breaking warmth noted by MetService, with temperatures exceeding 19°C, suggests that while rare, extreme June heat is possible under specific atmospheric conditions. A conditional order strategy would involve setting triggers based on real-time Wunderground data feeds, watching for sustained wind speeds below 20 mph and humidity drops, which often precede temperature rises. With settlement ending 2026-06-21T12:00:00Z, the focus remains on short-term weather volatility rather than long-term trends, requiring precise timing in copy-trading or bot execution to capitalise on any unexpected warmth.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket App UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket App UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket App UK?

Zero. Polymarket App UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.